Hearts and Minds, and why you won't win them.

For those of you who have given up following America's folly in the Middle East (and I wouldn't blame you), you may find it mind-numbingly typical if I told you that the US was bombing Pakistan. Not all of it, mind you, just the "lawless" border with Afghanistan.

For a very long time, this region bordering Afghanistan has been a "safe haven" for terrorists operating in Afghanistan. If Afghanistan isn't safe, then the mountainous, cave-filled border region can always be counted on.

Unfortunately for the locals, however, the Americans don't think that Al-Qaeda should be safe anywhere, and so have begun bombing suspected terrorist safe-houses behind the border.

As an unavoidable side effect of this, civilians die. It's inevitable, when you're talking about the kind of explosive power that modern bombs have. Yes, they never miss. You can plant a 500 kilogram bomb at the base of a lamp-post in Baghdad, and yes, the lamp-post will be destroyed. The city block that the lamp-post is in will also be destroyed, but hey, that's collateral damage, right?

People die in these air strikes, and naturally the families and friends of the people that were killed for no reason (or, at least, a very bad reason) start to harbor some disdain for the people that dropped the bombs.

This has happened in every "war" the US has been in since WWII. It happened in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq.

Now it's happening in Pakistan.

And the response every time was some kind of attempt to "win the hearts and minds of the innocent people of nation X," just like NATO now wants to do in Pakistan. They use food drops, and send soldiers in to talk to village elders, and all that jazz. But it doesn't work, because these people don't want to support a group of other people that could, at any moment, lay waste to their entire livelihood with one, well placed, multi-million dollar weapon of war.

I'm not making this up. It does happen. They've bombed weddings, for Christ's sake!

And yet, in every new war the US stumbles in to, they keep doing the same things over and over again. They use crappy intelligence to find bullshit targets, kill a lot of civilians (displace a hell of a lot more), and then attempt to make up for all of that by apologizing, giving them a food drop, and repeating the same process tomorrow?

Someone once said that the definition of madness was repeating the same thing over and over again, and expecting a different result. And boy oh boy, are these people good at that.

This gem, from Germany...

Inmate escapes German jail in box
- BBC News, 14/11/08

A manhunt is under way in western Germany for a convicted drug dealer who escaped by mailing himself out of jail.

The 42-year-old Turkish citizen - who was serving a seven-year sentence - had been making stationery with other prisoners destined for the shops.

At the end of his shift, the inmate climbed into a cardboard box and was taken out of prison by express courier. His whereabouts are still unknown.

It's just classic. A man... mailed himself... out of prison.

Just... wow.

A clue from LewRockwell.com...

China's recovery from communism is one of the most inspiring stories in the history of economic development. The country went from being a suffering and impoverished land of catastrophe to being modernized in just 15 years. The state shrunk in scope nearly by default as the private sector grew and grew. This wasn't the plan. It was the de facto result of the new tolerance of free economic activity. The state went into protective mode to keep its power, and did nothing to stop the swell of private enterprise. The result was glorious.

Keep in mind this critical point. China's restoration as a civilized society came about not due to some central plan, but by its absence. The fact that the state did not intervene led to prosperity. Again, it wasn't a policy or a constitution or a law that made the difference. There was no switch from a communist-style government to a night-watchman state. Because the state abandoned its posts under public opposition and contempt, society could flourish.

- Lew Rockwell, 15/11/2008

Why I'm focusing on economics.

I think I should take some time to explain why I'm focusing on the economics news.

Firstly, the Economy is the thing that drives the world. It is the most important thing in the world. It gives us housing, food, and water. It keeps us warm. In free countries it should give us a smorgasbord of choice when it comes to decisions like "Which house should I rent?" and "Should I really eat fast food, or have a sandwich?"

Secondly, because the the most important mechanism for our prosperity is quickly becoming a quagmire of stagflation and evil, this is what the best stories are all about.

Thirdly, because I'm relatively certain who's fault this is, it's quickly becoming the main reason why I Donkey Vote.

If we weren't entering a depression right now, there'd be a million other things I could focus on. Australia is full of stupid laws, stupid regulations, stupider politicians, and mind-numbingly thick voters, all of them fodder for my pessimistic commentary, but the economy is much too important for me to ignore it.

So, if something monumentally stupid happens in the political world, I will do my best to cover it.

But until then, it's all Economics, sorry.

The G20 summit...

It's like I'm freakin' psychic or something.

World Leaders Act on Economic Crisis
- New York Times, 15/11/2008

WASHINGTON — Facing the gravest global economic crisis in many decades, the leaders of 20 countries agreed Saturday to work more closely to reinvigorate their economies, but put off the thornier questions of how to overhaul regulation until next year, effectively giving a major assignment to the Obama administration.

Though the proposals were cast as ambitious reform, they mainly reflected steps that the countries were already undertaking. What remained to be seen was whether, working with a new White House, they will cast aside their political and economic differences to come up with dramatic changes.

Some pessimism in the second paragraph, there, as the Author correctly recognises the talk of "massive reform" as "let's do the same, only more so."

Down and down we go...

So, the market is continuing it's relentless dive into the abyss, even after a slight snap back earlier this week. Markets are closing this week at new delicious lows.

In other news, the old media is finally acknowledging that, yes, the entire world is going down with the captain of the ship.

There's a concerning trend in articles like those linked above, and most others like it.

"Stocks slump as investors abandon recovery attempt..."
"Worst retail sales in history..."
"Consumers showed fresh signs of distress..."

It's almost like they're saying that it's all our fault...

There's a reason no-one is investing: it's not worth it. There's a reason consumers aren't buying as much stuff as they used too: it's all over priced, and people can't afford it. I'd tell you whose fault I think it is, but that would give the game away...

This weekend also sees the G20 summit in Washington, where world leaders are going to gather to supposedly talk about the "new economic world order." I have a prediction about the G20 summit: all of these world leaders are going to get together and talk about how much they haven't done, and how much more they could do. They're going to decide to increase spending (like they need a summit to decide these things. *cough $700b cough*). They're going to decide to do the very things that got us into the situation where in now. You can't wake a dead horse by beating it. That's my prediction.

These people control the world, by the way.

STAY CALM!!! ALL IS WELL!!!!

Experts agree: everything's fine!!

Paulson says US bail-out working
- BBC News, 12/11/08

"The $700bn (£494bn) US bail-out package has already 'clearly helped stabilise' the financial system, US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has said.

But he added that there were still many challenges ahead and market turbulence was likely to continue for some time."

Challenges and market turbulence, like:

US stocks close nearly 5pc lower
- News.com.au, 13/11/08

"US stocks plunged overnight as global markets were rattled by further signs of recession in Europe and a shift in the US financial bailout strategy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 411.30 points (4.73 per cent) to finish at 8282.66 and the Nasdaq dropped 81.69 points (5.17 per cent) to 1499.21.

The broad Standard & Poor's 500 index slid 46.65 points (5.19 per cent) to 852.30.

Since Monday, the Dow has lost 7.4 per cent."

I'm just gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe this bailout isn't helping. And maybe it'll make things worse. Consider it a prediction.


And an Australian addendum:

Australian market plunges to 4-year low
- ABC News, 13/11/2008

In a volatile day for Australian stocks, the local market has finished at a four-year low after it was unable to recover from a plunge of almost 5 per cent in the first hour of trade.

The All Ordinaries Index has finished the day 5.5 per cent lower at 3,672 points, and the ASX200 dropped 230 points, to 3,697.

The steep falls followed a 5 per cent dip on Wall Street overnight, after US Treasury secretary Henry Paulson decided to use the rest of the Government's bailout package on shoring up banks, rather than bad mortgages.

The last line is odd: it's like the old media thinks the bailout will work if only they could do the right thing with the money they printed. Halfway there, Old Media. Halfway to realising that the best thing Mr. Paulson could do with that money is burn it.

Don't Worry, Be Happy!

It's all so obvious now! The reason the economy isn't improving is because we're all hopeless pessimists, and all we need to do is have a little faith! Why didn't I think of that?!

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Australia can smile away the recession, says Treasury boss Ken Henry
- News.com.au, November 12, 2008

"THE threat of recession could disappear if we all put a smile on our face, the Government's top money man said today.

After two months of persistent bad economic news, Treasury secretary Ken Henry said the worst could be avoided if Australians simply cheered up.

'Fundamentally what is driving weaker economic outcomes globally at the moment is fractured confidence,' Dr Henry said. "

Was the conversation like this, I wonder...

G-Man 1: "Because of our own regulations, many businessmen have made bad decisions, and the economy is imploding."
G-Man 2: "Good lord, what should we do!"
G-Man 1: "How about we print some money, and give it too them?"
G-Man 2: "We're geniuses! Call the Fed!"

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Lobbyists Swarm the Treasury for a Helping of the Bailout Pie

WASHINGTON — When the government said it would spend $700 billion to rescue the nation’s financial industry, it seemed to be an ocean of money. But after one of the biggest lobbying free-for-alls in memory, it suddenly looks like a dwindling pool...

What Is a "Donkey Vote"?

"A donkey voter is someone who votes for candidates based solely upon the order they are listed on the ballot paper.

In Australia, where all State, Federal and Territory electoral systems combine compulsory turnout with some form of preferential voting, a donkey vote refers to the practice of numbering the candidates' boxes sequentially from top to bottom of the ballot-paper, rather than taking the time to number the candidates in the voter's own thought-out order of preference."

- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donkey_vote

In my home country of Australia, voting in elections (ALL elections) is compulsory. We also use a queer voting system called "Preference Voting", wherein a voter numbers political parties or prospective prime ministers in order of personal preference. (You can check out the link here for more info.)

So, what happens when it comes to election time, and you don't have any party or candidate that's right for you? What if you think the system is broken, and would rather not vote? Well, in America you can just stay an home. That's sweet, just the way it should be (well, halfway there, anyway, but more on that in another post.)

In Australia, we don't have a choice in the matter. We have to get up off our asses, walk up to the local school / hall, and get our names ticked off in this big ol' book. But thanks to the glorious system of the Secret Ballot, what happens when we step inside the voting booth is completely up to us.

So, some of us, startled by a complete lack of political choice, or due to some ideological reason, choose to donkey vote. They put the numbers in any order, random, or just number from top to bottom. Some people don't even mark their ballot papers, and some others write in their own candidates.

In the next election I intend on drawing pretty pictures on my ballot paper...